I have been End Times by Peter Turchin, finding it to be one of the most compelling political science books I’ve come across in quite some time.
Turchin is a pioneer in the field of Cliodynamics, having made a mid-career shift from theoretical biology with the aim of applying complexity science, vast databases and more scientific rigour to the study of history.
Prior to a recent mention in a Bloomberg article by Niall Ferguson on the new Sino-American Cold War, I was not familiar with Turchin’s work. For the purpose of this discussion, I will focus solely on “End Times” and not delve into his other works.
In “End Times,” Turchin highlights a significant and in my mind the most under-communicated challenge facing Western (and fot that matter Eastern) societies: Elite overproduction. Western societies have long prided themselves on meritocracy, where individuals can rise from humble origins to positions of power and prominence through the pathway provided by the education system. The traditional aristocracy and clergy have been largely replaced by a credentialed class.
However, a problem arises when there is an excess of elite aspirants graduating into a stagnating economy. Turchin’s extensive historical database reveals that such circumstances, coupled with widespread popular immiseration and record income inequality, inevitably lead to crises. Remarkably, Turchin predicted well in advance that the 2020s would become a period of political instability.
Unfortunately, historical evidence shows that finding a smooth exit from a crisis of elite overproduction is challenging, with only a few exceptions such as the reform acts in Victorian Britain and the New Deal period in the US. Typically, the surplus elites must be culled, either non-violently or, if necessary, through violence.
While Turchin doesn’t explicitly predict how or if Western societies will escape the predicament of an increasing number of credentialed aspirants seeking to join an increasingly gerontocratic elite that controls an ever-growing share of the wealth of economies which lack the dynamism and growth potential of the past, he is not optimistic in the near term.
Turchin’s concept of Elite overproduction should serve as food for thought for policymakers who still adhere to the previous success formula of pushing as many students as possible through the higher education assembly line without fully considering the consequences when these aspiring elites realise their prospects of joining the elite may not align with reality.
Western Decline 